Hunch. This case now stands alone, because the Federal Communications Commission cleared the deal on 17 September and no federal agency ever sued, and from 1 October every day it stays open costs Paramount $7m.
The March market resolves on the court's own register for The State of California v. Paramount Skydance Corporation, case 4:26-cv-07116 in the Northern District of California, read on 2 March 2027. It resolves YES if the register shows the case closed on or before that day, whatever closed it, a settlement, a dismissal or a judgment, and NO if the case is still open, including if the trial has begun. If the register cannot be read that day, reports from Reuters and the Financial Times settle it.
We found nine cases since 2019 like this one. In each, a US competition authority, the Federal Trade Commission, the Justice Department or a group of state attorneys general, went to a federal court to stop a merger that had already been announced. We counted the days from the filing to the day the court closed the case, whatever closed it: a settlement, a ruling for either side, or the companies walking away. We checked whether each was over within 232 days, the gap here between the filing and the first day of trial.