Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market19 Sep 2026

Is the case against the Paramount deal closed by 31 October?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2026
History11%
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The court entered the consent decree on 30 September 2026 and the docket of California v. Paramount Skydance shows the case terminated on 1 October 2026, per the CourtListener court register; The Independent confirms the judge approved the settlement with the 12 states.

Resolved 1 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The two cases that closed this fast were both settlements with a federal agency that could sign alone, while here twelve attorneys general have to sign and the court has given them only two days in the middle of October to do it.

How this resolves

The October market resolves on the same register, read on 31 October 2026. It resolves YES if the case is shown as closed on or before that day, and NO if it is still open, including where a settlement has been announced but nothing has been entered on the docket. If the register cannot be read that day, reports from Reuters and the Financial Times settle it.

The pattern behind it

3 of 9
Three of the nine suits were over inside 232 days, the gap between the filing and the first day of trial. The two fastest, day 108 and day 119, both settled. Everything that lived past four months ran to a judgment.

We found nine cases since 2019 like this one. In each, a US competition authority, the Federal Trade Commission, the Justice Department or a group of state attorneys general, went to a federal court to stop a merger that had already been announced. We counted the days from the filing to the day the court closed the case, whatever closed it: a settlement, a ruling for either side, or the companies walking away. We checked whether each was over within 232 days, the gap here between the filing and the first day of trial.