Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Sep 2026

Does the settlement make Paramount sell a business by 15 October?

BinaryResolves 15 Oct 2026
History80%
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The consent decree filed on 30 September 2026 in case 4:26-cv-07116 (document 267) orders no sale of any business; a sale of Miramax or cable channels applies only after a future uncured breach, so nothing has to be sold.

Resolved 15 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Rob Bonta said he would take only structural remedies, but every account of the framework agreed on Monday describes conduct terms, guardrails for CNN, penalties tied to the thirty-film promise and a temporary separation of the studios, with no sale named.

How this resolves

The remedies market resolves on the court register for The State of California v. Paramount Skydance Corporation, case 4:26-cv-07116 in the Northern District of California, read on 15 October 2026. It resolves YES if the settlement document filed there orders Paramount or Warner Bros. Discovery to sell any business, network, studio or station to a third party. It resolves NO if the filed document contains no such order, and also NO if no settlement document has been filed by that day. Holding a business apart, ring-fencing it or running it separately is not a sale. If the register cannot be read, the California Attorney General's newsroom settles it, then reports from Reuters and the Financial Times.

The pattern behind it

4 of 10
Four of the ten deals were complete within ten days of the settlement being filed. Eight were complete within fifty days. Every one of the ten closed in the end, so the open question is speed, not outcome.

We found ten deals like this since 2004. Each was a large US media or telecom merger where a competition case against it ended in a settlement. We counted the days from the settlement being filed in court to the day the buyer reported the deal complete. We checked whether that took ten days or less, the gap between this settlement and 1 October, when the daily payment starts. We picked the ten cases closest to this one, not the newest. One caution: the Justice Department settled all ten, so the same body set the terms every time.