History. 5 of 6: in each promised vote that was decided, MPs passed at least one change to the government's text, except 1995. The 2016 promise was never decided and is not counted.
Hunch. The Conservatives are now whipped against the plan, so this vote looks more split by party than the free vote of 2018, when MPs changed the government's text by 236 to 220.
The amendment market lives only if the Commons decides the repairs motion by 17 December 2026, and is VOID if it does not: YES if on any day up to 17 December on which the Commons decides a government repairs motion, the Votes and Proceedings or Hansard show at least one change to the government's motion agreed, NO if the motion is passed as written or rejected. BBC News and The Guardian are the backups.
We looked for cases where a UK government promised the House of Commons a vote on how it runs itself, from MPs' conduct to its own building, without giving a date. We found seven such promises since 1995, two of them about these same repairs.