Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market07 Nov 2026

Will MPs have no vote on Parliament's repairs by the end of 17 Dec?

BinaryResolves 17 Dec 2026
History14%
Hunch53%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 17 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 1 of 7: counted from each first promise, only the 2016 promise on these same repairs still had no vote 303 days later, the time from 17 February to 17 December.

Hunch. Ministers have promised this vote "shortly" since July, and in 2017 ministers of an earlier government missed both dates they named for it, so with no date set on 7 November it can still wait until 2027.

How this resolves

The Christmas market resolves on Hansard and the Commons Votes and Proceedings: YES if by the end of 17 December 2026, London time, the Commons has not decided a government motion on the way forward for the repairs, and NO if the question on it was put and decided that day or earlier, with or without a division. A debate with no decision, a date announced, or a vote in the House of Lords only does not count, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the official pages are silent.

The pattern behind it

1 of 7
Six of seven times since 1995, a vote ministers promised MPs on Commons affairs came within 137 days. The seventh, on these repairs, never came, even after 224 days. This time 263 days have passed.

We looked for cases where a UK government promised the House of Commons a vote on how it runs itself, from MPs' conduct to its own building, without giving a date. We found seven such promises since 1995, two of them about these same repairs.