Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market15 Sep 2026

Is the Bicester urgent planning application approved by 16 Oct?

BinaryResolves 16 Oct 2026
Hunch18%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No decision was made by 16 October 2026: the GOV.UK page for application PCU/RARE/C3105/3378843, read on 17 October, still shows the representation period status last updated on 4 September, and BBC News on 14 October still describes the Bicester site as a plan the government has yet to approve.

Resolved 16 Oct 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). The approval market resolves on the GOV.UK Urgent Crown Development page for MOD Bicester Site A, reference PCU/RARE/C3105/3378843, or the GOV.UK Crown development collection, showing a Secretary of State decision granting permission on or before 16 October 2026; BBC and Oxford Mail reports of the decision letter settle it if GOV.UK lags. Refusal, a call-in for further procedure, deferral or silence resolve NO. Timing base: the Manston urgent application, published 22 October 2025, was decided on 27 February 2026, 128 days later.

The pattern behind it

2 of 8
Two of the last eight local revolts against a Home Office large-site asylum plan drew a council or residents' court claim within 31 days: Scampton and Wethersfield, both 2023. Full record of ten, with Penally and Bicester 2002: two of ten.

We found eight such fights since 2020. Each time the Home Office planned to house asylum seekers on a large former military site, or a similar one, and the local council or residents organised against it. We counted from the day the Home Office confirmed the site and asked whether a council or residents went to court within 31 days. The newest come first. Barnham and Linton-on-Ouse, named in June 2026 with Bicester, are left out because 90 days have not yet passed.