Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market15 Sep 2026

Do the first asylum seekers move into MoD Bicester by 16 Dec?

BinaryResolves 16 Dec 2026
History25%
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 16 Dec 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent, long). The arrivals market resolves on a Home Office statement on GOV.UK or two of BBC, Oxford Mail and the Guardian reporting that asylum seekers are living at MoD Bicester on or before 16 December 2026. Staff, contractors and construction crews do not count; silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

2 of 8
Two of the last eight local revolts against a Home Office large-site asylum plan drew a council or residents' court claim within 31 days: Scampton and Wethersfield, both 2023. Full record of ten, with Penally and Bicester 2002: two of ten.

We found eight such fights since 2020. Each time the Home Office planned to house asylum seekers on a large former military site, or a similar one, and the local council or residents organised against it. We counted from the day the Home Office confirmed the site and asked whether a council or residents went to court within 31 days. The newest come first. Barnham and Linton-on-Ouse, named in June 2026 with Bicester, are left out because 90 days have not yet passed.