Between 31 August and 30 September 2026 the government named no new offence type barred from the progression model; the gov.uk exclusions page was last updated on 30 August, and the Prison Reform Trust guide (September update) lists only the 4 and 30 August exclusions.
Resolves on gov.uk. YES if a Ministry of Justice or Prime Minister's Office announcement published between 31 August and 23:59 BST on 30 September 2026 names at least one additional offence category barred from the progression model. Restatements of the 4 and 30 August exclusions do not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and PoliticsHome settle it.
We looked for every time since 2007 that ministers in England and Wales or Scotland cut more crimes or groups of offenders out of an early-release scheme after they had already announced it. Exclusions written in at the start do not count. We found four such cuts, and three kept their release dates. In those three, no delay came with the cut or within 30 days. Four cases is two short of the six we need before we show a History figure.