Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market31 Aug 2026

Does Alex Norris make an oral statement to the House of Commons on the progression model on or before 18 Sep 2026?

BinaryResolves 18 Sep 2026
Hunch62%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Alex Norris, the Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, made an oral statement on the implementation of the Sentencing Act to the Commons on 1 September 2026, answering questions on what had been taken out of scope of the progression model (Hansard, Criminal Justice Reform, 1 Sep 2026).

Resolved 1 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on Hansard. YES if the Commons record shows an oral statement by the Justice Secretary, Alex Norris, on the progression model or the Sentencing Act release changes on a sitting day between 1 and 18 September 2026. Answering an urgent question counts; written statements and answers to oral questions do not. If that source has not published in time, PoliticsHome and BBC News settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Three of the four post-announcement narrowings of a release scheme since 2007 kept their release timetable: the End of Custody Licence in March 2008, Scotland's emergency release in May 2024 and SDS40 in November 2024. The fourth, this scheme's first carve-out on 4 August 2026, moved the start from September to 1 October in the same breath. Four cases are two short of the six Hunch needs to show History, and one of them sits inside the scheme now being tested.

We looked for every time since 2007 that ministers in England and Wales or Scotland cut more crimes or groups of offenders out of an early-release scheme after they had already announced it. Exclusions written in at the start do not count. We found four such cuts, and three kept their release dates. In those three, no delay came with the cut or within 30 days. Four cases is two short of the six we need before we show a History figure.