Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was sworn in as Premier of Quebec on 21 October 2026 at the head of a minority government, as the National Assembly's member page shows ('Premier since October 21, 2026'), confirmed by The Globe and Mail and POLITICO Europe.
History. 8 of 8 elections: the party leading the last polls, with its rivals split, formed the government.
Hunch. The PQ is still first in Leger's last poll, but its 29% is lower than the share of any of the eight leaders, where the lowest was 32% (Leger, 3 Oct 2026).
The government market resolves on who is sworn in as Premier of Quebec by 30 October 2026: YES if the leader of the Parti Québécois takes the oath on or before that date, with a majority or a minority. If another leader is sworn in, or the CAQ government is still in office on 30 October, NO.
We looked for cases where, in a Canadian federal or provincial election, one party was first in the last polls with less than half the vote, while at least two rivals each had 15% or more, and the party in power was not first. We found eight, from 2006 to 2018. In all eight the leading party formed the government.