Élections Québec's final results, updated 8 October 2026, give the Parti Québécois 59 of 127 seats, and the pending judicial recount in Vachon, which the PQ trails by 10 votes, could lift it to 60 at most, short of 64.
History. 6 of 8 elections: the poll leader won a majority of seats. The two minorities were Canada 2006 and Quebec 2012.
Hunch. Seat projections put the PQ in majority territory, but its 29% is below the 33% and 38% of the two leaders who ended with minorities (Global News, 28 Sep 2026; Leger, 3 Oct 2026).
The majority market resolves on the official results from Élections Québec, with most winners declared on 14 October: YES if the Parti Québécois has 64 or more of the 127 seats. If a judicial recount pending on 16 October could change that, the market waits for it.
We looked for cases where, in a Canadian federal or provincial election, one party was first in the last polls with less than half the vote, while at least two rivals each had 15% or more, and the party in power was not first. We found eight, from 2006 to 2018. In all eight the leading party formed the government.