Élections Québec's final results, updated 8 October 2026, give the Parti Québécois 28.02% of valid votes across Quebec, above the 27.5% line.
History. 8 of 8 elections: the poll leader's vote share was no more than 2.5 points below its last poll. The line is the PQ's 30% in Leger's 25 to 27 September poll, minus 2.5.
Hunch. Leger's last poll has the PQ at 29%, a point lower than the poll the line comes from, so a fall of 1.6 points is enough for NO, and two of the eight fell further (Leger, 3 Oct 2026).
The vote share market resolves on the same official results: YES if the Parti Québécois has 27.5% or more of valid votes across Quebec, NO below 27.5%.
We looked for cases where, in a Canadian federal or provincial election, one party was first in the last polls with less than half the vote, while at least two rivals each had 15% or more, and the party in power was not first. We found eight, from 2006 to 2018. In all eight the leading party formed the government.