Élections Québec's final results, updated 8 October 2026, give the Conservative Party of Quebec 20.66% of valid votes against 13.35% for the CAQ.
History. No count from the cases: the order of the rival parties was not recorded. This question comes from what the rivals want, each claiming to be the one that can stop the PQ. The checker compares Hunch with the page base of 8 of 8.
Hunch. Leger put the Conservatives ahead of the CAQ, 18% to 16%, on 25 to 27 September, and its last poll has them up two more points to 20% (Leger, 28 Sep and 3 Oct 2026).
The Conservative market resolves on the same official results: YES if the Conservative Party of Quebec has a larger share of valid votes across Quebec than the CAQ. Equal shares to one decimal place resolve void.
We looked for cases where, in a Canadian federal or provincial election, one party was first in the last polls with less than half the vote, while at least two rivals each had 15% or more, and the party in power was not first. We found eight, from 2006 to 2018. In all eight the leading party formed the government.