History. 9 of 9: each government bill with no-vote committee debates whose last Lords report day came three sitting days or less before a break became law only after the break.
Hunch. This week rail minister Peter Hendy said the bill has a fair chance of becoming law before the winter break.
The Christmas market resolves on the Railways Bill page of UK Parliament's bills data: YES if no Royal Assent is dated on or before 17 December 2026, London time, and NO if the bill became law on 17 December or earlier. Lords Hansard for 17 December is the backup, and BBC and Guardian reports settle it if the official pages do not open.
We looked for cases where a UK government bill from the House of Commons had its last report day in the Lords at most seven days before a Lords break, with three or fewer sitting days left and no votes allowed at the committee stage before. We found nine such bills from 2007 to 2023. None became law before the break. All nine became law later, from 29 to 171 days after the last report day.