History. 0 of 9: none of the nine bills had its Lords Third Reading before the break; the gaps after the last report day ran from 6 to 54 days.
Hunch. In October 2025 and April 2026 the Lords had Third Reading of a government bill just two days after the last report day, and 17 December is two days after 15 December.
The Third Reading market resolves on the same bills data: YES if the Lords Third Reading of the Railways Bill has a sitting date on or before 17 December 2026, and NO if it has not happened by the end of that day. Lords Hansard is the backup, with BBC and Guardian reports if the official pages do not open.
We looked for cases where a UK government bill from the House of Commons had its last report day in the Lords at most seven days before a Lords break, with three or fewer sitting days left and no votes allowed at the committee stage before. We found nine such bills from 2007 to 2023. None became law before the break. All nine became law later, from 29 to 171 days after the last report day.