History. 5 of 9 became law within 58 days of the last report day, the gap from 15 December to 11 February: 29, 31, 35, 37 and 52 days. The other four took 72 to 171 days.
Hunch. The rail minister wants the bill to become law before Christmas, but only 5 of 11 similar bills from this government became law within the 28 Lords sitting days this market allows.
The February market resolves on the Railways Bill page of UK Parliament's bills data: YES if Royal Assent is dated on or before 11 February 2027, including any assent in December, and NO if the bill is not law by the end of that day. Hansard is the backup, with BBC and Guardian reports if the official pages do not open.
We looked for cases where a UK government bill from the House of Commons had its last report day in the Lords at most seven days before a Lords break, with three or fewer sitting days left and no votes allowed at the committee stage before. We found nine such bills from 2007 to 2023. None became law before the break. All nine became law later, from 29 to 171 days after the last report day.