History. No count: the nine past bills were not checked for government defeats at report stage.
Hunch. Since January 2025 ministers lost at least one Lords vote at report stage on 10 of 11 of their bills that had more than one report day.
The Lords vote market resolves on the House of Lords votes data: YES if ministers lose at least one Lords division on the Railways Bill on any Lords report day of the bill up to 15 December 2026, and NO if there is no such government loss by the end of 15 December 2026. Changes withdrawn without a vote do not count, and Lords Hansard, BBC and Guardian reports are the backups.
We looked for cases where a UK government bill from the House of Commons had its last report day in the Lords at most seven days before a Lords break, with three or fewer sitting days left and no votes allowed at the committee stage before. We found nine such bills from 2007 to 2023. None became law before the break. All nine became law later, from 29 to 171 days after the last report day.