The Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board statement of 3 November 2026 raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, as The Guardian also reports.
History. 6 of 9 cases (67%), from one run of rises in 2022 and 2023.
Hunch. ANZ and UBS still expect a rise in November, and markets expect another rise by February at the latest (Guardian, 29 Sep 2026).
The rate market resolves on the Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board statement of 3 November 2026, due at 2.30pm Sydney time on rba.gov.au: YES if the cash rate target stays at 4.60%. A rise or a cut resolves NO. If the meeting is moved, the market resolves on the next scheduled decision. The Guardian and Reuters settle it if the statement cannot be found.
We looked for cases where a central bank with an inflation target raised rates for at least the third time without a cut in between, said a further rise was possible but not expected, and its head said in public that no more rises might be needed. We found nine, all from 2023. In six the next meeting brought a pause.