In the RBA transcript of her 3 November 2026 press conference Michele Bullock said it was a good point to take stock, but when asked if the bank was on hold she said no and kept both options open, which the rule counts as NO.
History. No count from the cases: whether the head repeated the words at the next meeting was not recorded. This question comes from what the governor wants. The checker compares Hunch with the page base of 6 of 9.
Hunch. On 29 September Bullock would not say where rates might peak, and on 18 September she left open whether the rises so far were enough (RBA, 18 and 29 Sep 2026).
The governor market resolves on the RBA's transcript of Michele Bullock's press conference of 3 November 2026 on rba.gov.au: YES if she says rates may not need to rise further, speaks of a pause or a peak, or says inflation can come back to target at the current rate. Warnings in both directions only, or an expectation of more rises, resolve NO. If no press conference is held, the market is void.
We looked for cases where a central bank with an inflation target raised rates for at least the third time without a cut in between, said a further rise was possible but not expected, and its head said in public that no more rises might be needed. We found nine, all from 2023. In six the next meeting brought a pause.