The OBR's October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (Table 3.1) shows Budget tax measures cutting tax by £1.7bn in 2026-27 and then raising it by £0.3bn to £7.5bn a year to 2031-32, a net tax increase of about £21.6bn across the period; obr.uk is blocked by Cloudflare, so the same OBR document was read in the copy laid before Parliament on gov.uk, and The Guardian reported the Budget raised taxes on banks and landlords.
Resolves YES if the OBR's policy measures table published alongside the 2026 Budget shows a net tax increase across the scorecard period. obr.uk on Budget day; fallbacks, the HM Treasury Budget document on gov.uk and the scorecard as reported by two of BBC News, the Financial Times and The Guardian.
We looked at summer warnings on the UK's public finances since 2021. Each was a report from the OBR or a Treasury review of spending saying the finances were on a path that could not last. We asked whether the next Budget or Statement raised taxes, the question the first market asks about this year. The OBR has published a summer risks report in most years since 2017, and each one warned about long-term debt. The recent record leans one way, but not every year.