The ONS put June borrowing at £16bn, £7.9bn less than in June 2025 and £300m below the OBR forecast, below City expectations (ONS, reported by The Guardian and BBC News, 21 Jul 2026).
Resolves on the ONS Public Sector Finances release for June 2026, public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks, first estimate, published 21 July 2026. Later revisions do not change the resolution. If that source has not published in time, the figure as reported by two of BBC News, The Guardian and Reuters settle it.
We looked at summer warnings on the UK's public finances since 2021. Each was a report from the OBR or a Treasury review of spending saying the finances were on a path that could not last. We asked whether the next Budget or Statement raised taxes, the question the first market asks about this year. The OBR has published a summer risks report in most years since 2017, and each one warned about long-term debt. The recent record leans one way, but not every year.