History. 1 of 8: an inquiry dropped after 35 days in 2014. The September 2026 arrest is outside the eight because 89 days have not passed.
Hunch. A prosecution under election law must start within a year of the offence, which gives police a reason to decide sooner than in the past arrests.
The decision market resolves on statements by Cambridgeshire Police or the Crown Prosecution Service, confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian: YES if by the end of 22 December 2026 Ryan Coogan is charged or police say no further action will be taken. NO if his bail is extended, he is released under investigation without a date, or no decision is announced.
We looked for cases where police in the UK arrested an elected politician on suspicion of a crime and let them go on bail without charge. We found nine since 2008. None of them was about election papers: the arrests were over sexual offences, bribery, leaks and online posts.