How many people will the Apr–Jun CHAIN count record?
Multiple choiceResolves 31 Jul 2026
Hunch
Under 3,60030%
3,600–4,30046%
Over 4,30024%
Your forecast
Under 3,600
3,600–4,300
Over 4,300
Resolved
Resolved: 3,600–4,300
Outreach teams recorded 3,959 people sleeping rough in April-June 2026, per the CHAIN quarterly report.
Resolved 31 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The count market resolves on that same headline total, placed in one of the three bands.
The pattern behind it
1 of 4
One of the four major rough sleeping pledges since 1998 hit its target. But the short-term record points the other way: both CHAIN quarters reported in 2026 have shown falls. The long-term base rate and the recent trend are genuinely in tension — that tension is the market.
Only one of four big promises since 1998 hit its target. We looked at the major political promises to end or cut rough sleeping since then. The Blair government's cut was reached in 2001. The other three were missed, or the fall they brought did not last.
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