Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market01 Oct 2026

Will the BG US Growth board offer all holders an exit by 23 October?

BinaryResolves 23 Oct 2026
History30%
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

BG US Growth's announcements before the 1pm meeting on 23 October 2026 were daily asset values and a 12 October note on voting advisers, with no tender or exit for all shareholders, according to its London Stock Exchange news feed on Investegate.

Resolved 23 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 10 cases: Keystone and Henderson in 2025 and Edinburgh Worldwide in 2026 offered an exit or tender to all holders before the vote.

Hunch. The 17 September circular ties the next exit offer to Saba's defeat, after the meeting, not before it (BG US Growth, 17 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The exit market resolves on BG US Growth announcements dated before 1pm on 23 October 2026: YES if the board offers a tender, scheme or cash exit close to asset value open to all shareholders. An offer only to Saba, or one that applies only if Saba's resolutions fail, resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

2 of 10
In 2 of 10 cases the activist got seats on the board, once by a vote and once by a deal. Seven of the ten came from one round of Saba meetings in early 2025, so the ten cases hold four separate decisions.

We looked for cases where an activist with a large stake in an investment trust, but less than half, put its own people up for the board at a set meeting, and the board and the manager were against. We found ten, nine of them Saba's, from 2015 to 2026. The activist got seats in two.