Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market01 Oct 2026

Will Saba agree a cash exit from BG US Growth by 31 December?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
History20%
Hunch15%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count from the cases: what Saba did after a defeat was not recorded. This question comes from what the two sides want.

Hunch. Saba has refused an exit at about 99.75% of asset value every time it was offered (BG US Growth, 17 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The Saba exit market resolves on BG US Growth or Saba announcements dated 30 September to 31 December 2026: YES if either announces an agreement or tender in which Saba sells all or most of its shares. Talks alone resolve NO. Reuters and BBC News are the backup.

The pattern behind it

2 of 10
In 2 of 10 cases the activist got seats on the board, once by a vote and once by a deal. Seven of the ten came from one round of Saba meetings in early 2025, so the ten cases hold four separate decisions.

We looked for cases where an activist with a large stake in an investment trust, but less than half, put its own people up for the board at a set meeting, and the board and the manager were against. We found ten, nine of them Saba's, from 2015 to 2026. The activist got seats in two.