Does the AfD finish first in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September?
BinaryResolves 6 Sep 2026
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Your forecast
Yes
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Resolved
Resolved: YES
The AfD won Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats, three short of a majority, against 17.2% for the CDU (Al Jazeera, 6 Sep 2026; Guardian, 6 Sep 2026).
Resolved 6 Sep 2026
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the provisional result published by the Saxony-Anhalt state returning officer (Landeswahlleiterin, wahlergebnisse.sachsen-anhalt.de) on election night gives the AfD the highest share of second votes (Zweitstimmen). If the site is unreachable, the result as reported by at least two of Al Jazeera, Reuters and BBC News suffices.
The pattern behind it
8 of 8
In eight of the last eight German state elections where a party led the final Infratest dimap poll by ten points or more, that party finished first. The record runs from Saxony-Anhalt in March 2016 to Hamburg in March 2025 and is the whole record since 2016: of 35 state elections in that decade, eight had a lead of that size, and none was lost. In six of the eight the leader's share at the count beat its final poll; the two exceptions, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021 and Saxony-Anhalt 2016, fell short by 0.4 and 1.2 points. The margin over second place widened in four cases, held level in one and narrowed in three, never below 5.5: the biggest narrowing was Saxony-Anhalt 2016, where the CDU's ten-point lead became 5.5 as the AfD jumped from 19% in the poll to 24.3% at the count. On 6 September the pattern held again: the AfD's twenty-point lead became a 26.6-point win.
A ten-point lead in the final poll has not been lost since 2016. We looked at every German state election since 2016 where a party went in ten or more points ahead in the last Infratest dimap poll. There were eight, and the leader came first each time. The closest was Saxony-Anhalt in 2016, when a ten-point CDU lead shrank to 5.5 as the AfD overtook Die Linke for second.
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