Does the AfD take 40% or more of the Saxony-Anhalt vote?

In eight of the last eight German state elections where a party led the final Infratest dimap poll by ten points or more, that party finished first. The record runs from Saxony-Anhalt in March 2016 to Hamburg in March 2025 and is the whole record since 2016: of 35 state elections in that decade, eight had a lead of that size, and none was lost. In six of the eight the leader's share at the count beat its final poll; the two exceptions, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021 and Saxony-Anhalt 2016, fell short by 0.4 and 1.2 points. The margin over second place widened in four cases, held level in one and narrowed in three, never below 5.5: the biggest narrowing was Saxony-Anhalt 2016, where the CDU's ten-point lead became 5.5 as the AfD jumped from 19% in the poll to 24.3% at the count. On 6 September the pattern held again: the AfD's twenty-point lead became a 26.6-point win.