Is an AfD candidate elected Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt by 6 December?
BinaryResolves 6 Dec 2026
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Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 6 Dec 2026
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt (landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de) records the election of a member of the AfD as Minister-President under Article 65 of the state constitution, in any ballot, on or before 6 December 2026. If the Landtag site is unreachable, the election as reported by at least two of Al Jazeera, Reuters and BBC News suffices. A caretaker government under Article 71, a failed ballot, a non-AfD Minister-President or a decision to end the term early all resolve NO.
The pattern behind it
8 of 8
In eight of the last eight German state elections where a party led the final Infratest dimap poll by ten points or more, that party finished first. The record runs from Saxony-Anhalt in March 2016 to Hamburg in March 2025 and is the whole record since 2016: of 35 state elections in that decade, eight had a lead of that size, and none was lost. In six of the eight the leader's share at the count beat its final poll; the two exceptions, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021 and Saxony-Anhalt 2016, fell short by 0.4 and 1.2 points. The margin over second place widened in four cases, held level in one and narrowed in three, never below 5.5: the biggest narrowing was Saxony-Anhalt 2016, where the CDU's ten-point lead became 5.5 as the AfD jumped from 19% in the poll to 24.3% at the count. On 6 September the pattern held again: the AfD's twenty-point lead became a 26.6-point win.
A ten-point lead in the final poll has not been lost since 2016. We looked at every German state election since 2016 where a party went in ten or more points ahead in the last Infratest dimap poll. There were eight, and the leader came first each time. The closest was Saxony-Anhalt in 2016, when a ten-point CDU lead shrank to 5.5 as the AfD overtook Die Linke for second.
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