Will euro area ministers back Schnabel's successor by 9 November?
BinaryResolves 9 Nov 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch40%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 9 Nov 2026
Why these numbers
History. 4 of 5. Ministers backed a successor within 21 to 43 days four times; only in 2023, with the summer break, did it take 80 days.
Hunch.
For: Schnabel gave 101 days' notice, and ministers meet twice before 9 November.
For: Germany named its candidate on the same day in 2011, and was the only country to put one forward in 2019.
Against: People familiar with the talks told Reuters the seat will probably be part of a deal on the president's and chief economist's posts.
Against: Lagarde can stay until October 2027, so there is no rush to settle the top job.
How this resolves
The first market resolves on the Council of the EU's press releases: YES if the Eurogroup says, on or before 9 November 2026, that it gives support to a candidate for Isabel Schnabel's seat on the ECB Executive Board. If the Council site is slow or closed to readers, the ECB and Reuters are the backup.
The pattern behind it
4 of 5
In 4 of 5 early exits, ministers backed a successor within 46 days, the time to their 9 November meeting. The fastest took 21 days. The slow case, in 2023, took 80 days over the summer.
We looked at every member of the ECB's Executive Board who left before the end of the term while holding a seat their country keeps by custom. We found five since 1998. For each we counted the days from the announcement to the day ministers backed a successor, and noted where that successor came from.
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