Will the person ministers pick to replace Schnabel be German?
BinaryResolves 10 Dec 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch70%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 10 Dec 2026
Why these numbers
History. 4 of 5. Four seats stayed with Germany or Italy; in 2011 Italy's seat went to France as part of the deal that made Mario Draghi president.
Hunch.
For: Reuters says Germany's interest in the president's post appears to have weakened.
For: Germany kept its seat each time a German member left early: 2011, 2013 and 2019.
Against: Reuters says replacing Schnabel with another German would mean Berlin giving up on the president's post.
Against: France wants the chief economist post, which could change how the seats are shared.
How this resolves
The second market resolves on the same Eurogroup statement: YES if the candidate backed by 10 December 2026 is a German citizen, as shown in the CV attached to the Council recommendation. If ministers back no one by 10 December, the market is VOID; Reuters and the ECB are the backup.
The pattern behind it
4 of 5
In 4 of 5 early exits, ministers backed a successor within 46 days, the time to their 9 November meeting. The fastest took 21 days. The slow case, in 2023, took 80 days over the summer.
We looked at every member of the ECB's Executive Board who left before the end of the term while holding a seat their country keeps by custom. We found five since 1998. For each we counted the days from the announcement to the day ministers backed a successor, and noted where that successor came from.
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