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Market03 Sep 2026

Does a Scottish minister announce a council tax freeze or a cap on increases for 2027-28 by 3 Dec 2026?

BinaryResolves 3 Dec 2026
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Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 3 Dec 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on gov.scot and the Official Report. YES if a Scottish minister states on or before 3 December 2026 that council tax will be frozen for 2027-28, or announces a cap on the increase councils may set for that year. Draft budget documents count; press reports of unattributed briefing do not. If that source has not published in time, BBC News Scotland and the Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

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One of the four structural proposals since 1999 reached the Parliament as a Bill or order within 18 months, and four is the whole record. The honest complication is that the cases are not independent of each other: the 2023 proposal was a deliberate repeat of the 2016 change, and it failed in a year when a freeze was politically cheaper. What the record measures is not the difficulty of the policy but the willingness of a government to carry a visible tax rise into an election cycle.

We found four plans since 1999 to change how council tax works. Each was a Scottish government's own plan or a review it had ordered. Each was about the bands, how much each band pays, or replacing the tax, and not about the size of bills. We asked whether a Bill or order to make the change was put before the Scottish Parliament within 18 months. Freezes and caps are left out because they keep the tax as it is.