Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Sep 2026

Does the council plan reach a consultation or bill by 6 May 2027?

BinaryResolves 6 May 2027
History100%
Hunch80%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 6 May 2027
Why these numbers

Hunch. All seven plans in the record reached a paper eventually, but none of them had to do it while the councils being abolished were fighting an election, and Scotland's are.

How this resolves

The May market resolves on the same test with the window running to the end of 6 May 2027, the day of the Scottish council elections. The primary source is the bills list on parliament.scot together with the publications list on gov.scot; if neither can be read that day, reports by BBC Scotland and The Herald settle it.

The pattern behind it

5 of 7
Five of the seven plans reached a formal paper within 101 days, and all seven reached one within 227 days. Nothing in the record moved within 31 days, and only three moved within 90. The split is by machinery, not by mood. The fast three had a document already written or a statutory route already open. The slow two, both Welsh, opened a period of talks with councils first, which is what the Scottish government has just done. Read the numbers with care: the class is small, and plans that produced a document are easier to find than plans that quietly died.

We looked for times when a UK government announced a plan to cut the number of councils before any consultation or bill carried it, and counted the days until a formal paper appeared. We found seven. England, Wales and Scotland were all announced in the Commons on 21 March 1991, so those three count once. Two more come from the same Welsh reform programme. Five came before the Scottish Parliament, which now decides this. The closest cases come first. Two dates, June 1991 and July 2014, are known only to the month, and we used the end of that month.