Tue, 19 May 2026
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Market29 Aug 2026

Does the UK Government agree to a section 30 order for an independence referendum by 27 Nov 2026?

BinaryResolves 27 Nov 2026
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  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 27 Nov 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on gov.uk and legislation.gov.uk. YES if, on or before 27 November 2026, the UK Government announces agreement to make, or lays before Parliament, an Order in Council under section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998 permitting an independence referendum, or both governments publish a signed agreement to that effect. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian. A statement that talks will be held does not count settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
One of the four requests since 2012 was granted. In 2012 the two governments signed an agreement nine months after the Scottish consultation and the order followed in February 2013. In 2017, 2019 and 2022 the UK Government refused: by a stated position in 2017, by letter after 26 days in January 2020 and by letter after eight days in July 2022. Four cases: History is not shown below six, and all three refusals came under one party at Westminster; the 2026 request is the first put to the current Prime Minister.

We found four formal requests for the power since 2012. In 2012, 2017, 2019 and 2022, the Scottish Government asked the UK Government for the power to hold an independence referendum, by letter, by agreement or by a published plan. We asked whether the UK agreed to hand over that power within 18 months. Section 30 orders on other subjects, fifteen in all, are left out. They show the legal tool in use, and this record is about the requests.