Tue, 19 May 2026
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Market29 Aug 2026

Does the UK government publicly respond to the draft independence referendum Bill by 30 Sep?

BinaryResolves 30 Sep 2026
Hunch25%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No gov.uk item published between 29 August and 30 September 2026 mentions the draft Independence Referendum Bill or the request for referendum powers; the Scotland Office feed shows 10 items, none of them on the Bill, and the Tenth Annual Report on the Scotland Act 2016 (29 September) does not mention it either.

Resolved 30 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on gov.uk. YES if a news story, speech, written statement, correspondence or policy paper published on gov.uk on or before 30 September 2026 refers to the Scottish Government's draft Independence Referendum Bill or to its request for referendum powers. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian citing the gov.uk document. A quotation reported only in a newspaper does not count settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
One of the four requests since 2012 was granted. In 2012 the two governments signed an agreement nine months after the Scottish consultation and the order followed in February 2013. In 2017, 2019 and 2022 the UK Government refused: by a stated position in 2017, by letter after 26 days in January 2020 and by letter after eight days in July 2022. Four cases: History is not shown below six, and all three refusals came under one party at Westminster; the 2026 request is the first put to the current Prime Minister.

We found four formal requests for the power since 2012. In 2012, 2017, 2019 and 2022, the Scottish Government asked the UK Government for the power to hold an independence referendum, by letter, by agreement or by a published plan. We asked whether the UK agreed to hand over that power within 18 months. Section 30 orders on other subjects, fifteen in all, are left out. They show the legal tool in use, and this record is about the requests.