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Market29 Aug 2026

Does John Swinney make a statement to the Scottish Parliament on the constitution by 30 Sep?

BinaryResolves 30 Sep 2026
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  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Scottish Parliament's Official Report for 1 to 30 September 2026 shows no statement by John Swinney on the constitution; on 22 September he opened a debate on the one-line motion that Scotland has a right to decide its own future, which is a debate, not a statement setting out further plans.

Resolved 30 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the Official Report of the Scottish Parliament (parliament.scot) and gov.scot. YES if the First Minister makes a statement in the chamber on or before 30 September 2026 that sets out further plans on Scotland's constitutional future. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian. A media interview or a published paper without a chamber statement does not count settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
One of the four requests since 2012 was granted. In 2012 the two governments signed an agreement nine months after the Scottish consultation and the order followed in February 2013. In 2017, 2019 and 2022 the UK Government refused: by a stated position in 2017, by letter after 26 days in January 2020 and by letter after eight days in July 2022. Four cases: History is not shown below six, and all three refusals came under one party at Westminster; the 2026 request is the first put to the current Prime Minister.

We found four formal requests for the power since 2012. In 2012, 2017, 2019 and 2022, the Scottish Government asked the UK Government for the power to hold an independence referendum, by letter, by agreement or by a published plan. We asked whether the UK agreed to hand over that power within 18 months. Section 30 orders on other subjects, fifteen in all, are left out. They show the legal tool in use, and this record is about the requests.