After the 3 November 2026 election Republicans hold 44 Senate seats (31 not up plus 13 races won) with only Alaska and Mississippi not yet called, so even winning both leaves them on 46, below 49; AP data shown by The Guardian and the BBC results page (Republicans 44, 33 of 35 races counted) show the same, and Nebraska's Pete Ricketts, called on 4 November, is counted.
History. 5 of 9: 2014, 1918, 1926, 2006 and 1950, all from leads of 10 or 12 seats.
Hunch. With a lead of six seats or fewer, as in 1914, 1982, 2018 and 2022, the president's party gained seats every time.
The seats market resolves on Associated Press results and the Senate's party division once every race is decided: YES if Republicans, with independents who vote with them, end up with 48 seats or fewer, NO if 49 or more. Reuters and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where the president's party ran the Senate going into a midterm, with a lead of 12 seats or fewer and the president's approval under 50% or not yet measured. We found nine since 1914. The party kept control six times and lost it three times.