History. 1 of 7. In seven similar elections the party in power won a majority of seats on its own only once: Vučić's own list in 2023, with 129 seats.
Hunch.
The majority market resolves on the results of the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK): YES if its report on the 25 October vote gives the list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” 126 or more of 250 seats by 25 November. If RIK has not reported by then, BBC News and Reuters reports of the RIK seat count settle it.
We looked for elections where a party that had won at least two elections in a row still ran the government, after months of protests against it, and a new party or list born of those protests was on the ballot. We kept only countries where parliament elects the government. We found seven such elections, two of them in Serbia.