Will any list win more seats than Vučić's list on 25 October?
BinaryResolves 25 Nov 2026
History43%
Hunch40%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 25 Nov 2026
Why these numbers
History. 3 of 7. The party in power came first in four elections and finished behind another list in three: Hungary 2026, Moldova 2019 and India 2014.
Hunch.
For: The students' list is new and grew out of almost two years of protests.
For: In Hungary in 2026 a party born of protests beat a party that had ruled for 16 years.
Against: Vučić's list came first in all four parliamentary votes since 2016.
Against: The opposition vote is split between the students and at least two more lists.
How this resolves
The first-place market resolves on the same RIK results: YES if any single list has more seats than Vučić's list, with a tie in seats decided by votes as RIK counts them. BBC News and Reuters reports of the RIK count are the backup.
The pattern behind it
1 of 7
In 1 of 7 elections the party in power won a majority of seats on its own: Serbia in 2023. In the other six it needed partners or lost power.
We looked for elections where a party that had won at least two elections in a row still ran the government, after months of protests against it, and a new party or list born of those protests was on the ballot. We kept only countries where parliament elects the government. We found seven such elections, two of them in Serbia.
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