Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market24 Sep 2026

Is a new Serbian government elected by parliament by 24 December?

BinaryResolves 24 Dec 2026
History29%
Hunch33%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 24 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 7. A government was in office within 60 days only in India 2014 and Hungary 2026, where one side won a clear majority. In Serbia it took 206 days in 2022 and 137 in 2023.

Hunch.

  • For: Vučić leaves the presidency to become prime minister, and a stand-in president may serve only three months.
  • Against: In 2022 and 2023 his party took months to elect a government, even with a majority.
  • Against: Parliament first meets up to 30 days after the final results.
How this resolves

The government market resolves on the websites of the Government of Serbia and the National Assembly: YES if parliament elects a new government between 25 October and 24 December 2026. A caretaker or acting government does not count, and BBC News and Reuters settle it if the official pages are unclear.

The pattern behind it

1 of 7
In 1 of 7 elections the party in power won a majority of seats on its own: Serbia in 2023. In the other six it needed partners or lost power.

We looked for elections where a party that had won at least two elections in a row still ran the government, after months of protests against it, and a new party or list born of those protests was on the ballot. We kept only countries where parliament elects the government. We found seven such elections, two of them in Serbia.