Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Oct 2026

Will parliament elect Vučić Serbia's prime minister by 4 December?

BinaryResolves 4 Dec 2026
History4 of 4
Hunch21%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 4 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 4 leaders pushed out by term limits got the post they sought from parliament: Russia 2008, Moldova 2009, Armenia 2018, Bulgaria 2026.

Hunch. In December 2023 Vučić's party also won a majority on its own, and parliament still took until 2 May 2024 to elect a government (Government of Serbia).

How this resolves

Resolves on the records of the National Assembly of Serbia and the Government of Serbia, checked on 5 December 2026: YES if parliament elects Aleksandar Vučić prime minister by 4 December 2026, and NO if it elects someone else or holds no such vote by then. BBC News, The Guardian and Al Jazeera reports of the vote are the backup.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
All four got the post. Three of them had a party with a majority, and in Armenia the new prime minister resigned six days later after street protests.

We looked for cases where a term limit forced a leader out of the top job and he then sought another post that parliament gives. We found four since 2008, in Russia, Moldova, Armenia and Bulgaria.