Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Aug 2026

Does the UK government announce a new measure targeting Israeli settlements on or before 14 October 2026?

BinaryResolves 14 Oct 2026
Hunch70%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 8 September the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office announced a ban on imports of goods from illegal settlements, new powers to designate individuals and companies profiting from settlement activity, a ban on advertising settlement property and sanctions on several extremist settlers, set out by the Foreign Secretary in a Commons statement.

Resolved 8 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on announcements published on gov.uk by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, and the Foreign Secretary's statements in Hansard. YES if a new measure directed at Israeli settlements, including sanctions designations, trade or advertising restrictions or new designation powers, is announced by 23:59 BST on 14 October 2026. Restatements of existing policy and joint statements without a British measure do not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Al Jazeera. Resolved YES on the FCDO announcement of 8 September 2026 settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Three of the last four British commitments on Israel since September 2024 produced a named measure within roughly eight weeks: arms licences, ministerial sanctions and recognition. The fourth, a ban on trade with the settlements, has been demanded since 2024 and has never been imposed. That is the split: this government moves fast on sanctions and status, and has so far refused to move on commerce. Four cases sit below the six Hunch needs before it shows History.

Three of four British promises on Israel since 2024 led to action. We looked at every time since 2024 that a prime minister or foreign secretary said measures on Israel were coming, and checked whether a named measure followed within about eight weeks. Arms licences, sanctions on ministers and recognition of Palestine all came. A ban on trade with the settlements, demanded since 2024, never has.