Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Sep 2026

Will the CMA formally commence its Phase 1 investigation into Sky's acquisition of ITV M&E Holdings on or before 17 September 2026?

BinaryResolves 17 Sep 2026
History50%
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The CMA had not started its phase 1 investigation by 17 September 2026. Its case page still shows only the invitation to comment that ran from 23 July to 6 August.

Resolved 17 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the CMA case page at gov.uk/cma-cases/sky-slash-itv-merger-inquiry, which records each step in the statutory timetable on the day it happens. YES if the timetable there records the launch of the Phase 1 merger inquiry, by notice to the parties, with a date on or before 17 September 2026. An updated invitation to comment, an initial enforcement order or a derogation does not count. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
Four of the last eight merger files the CMA opened with an invitation to comment had their Phase 1 clock started within 56 days, and two of those four landed on day 56 exactly. Across the 29 files since May 2025 it is 16. The interval is set partly by the parties' pre-notification and partly by the authority, and the largest transactions in the record, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery and Getty and Shutterstock, both missed 56 by a day to four days.

We found 29 merger cases like this one since May 2025. The CMA opened each with a call for public comments before it started the formal review. For each we asked the question the first market asks: did Phase 1 begin within 56 days of the case opening? Cases that started on the day they opened, or were less than 56 days old on 3 September 2026, are left out because they cannot answer it. The last eight are shown below.