Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Sep 2026

Does the Culture Secretary issue a public interest intervention notice on Sky's ITV deal by 30 Nov 2026?

BinaryResolves 30 Nov 2026
Hunch50%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 30 Nov 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on gov.uk. YES if a public interest intervention notice under section 42 of the Enterprise Act 2002 relating to the Sky and ITV transaction is published on gov.uk, or recorded on the CMA case page, on or before 30 November 2026. A statement that a minister is considering or minded to issue one does not count. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
Four of the last eight merger files the CMA opened with an invitation to comment had their Phase 1 clock started within 56 days, and two of those four landed on day 56 exactly. Across the 29 files since May 2025 it is 16. The interval is set partly by the parties' pre-notification and partly by the authority, and the largest transactions in the record, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery and Getty and Shutterstock, both missed 56 by a day to four days.

We found 29 merger cases like this one since May 2025. The CMA opened each with a call for public comments before it started the formal review. For each we asked the question the first market asks: did Phase 1 begin within 56 days of the case opening? Cases that started on the day they opened, or were less than 56 days old on 3 September 2026, are left out because they cannot answer it. The last eight are shown below.