FEC 24-hour reports show no Senate Leadership Fund spending on North Carolina's Senate race after 28 September 2026 and no NRSC independent spending there at all, so no ads were booked or restored after 2 October.
Hunch. Cooper has led Whatley by at least four points in every poll this year, while in Louisiana in 2008 the money came back only after the gap narrowed (The Guardian, 2 Oct 2026).
The party money market resolves on the FEC's 24-hour reports of independent spending: YES if the Senate Leadership Fund or the NRSC reports ads for Michael Whatley or against Roy Cooper that were booked or restored after 2 October and run between 5 October and 3 November 2026. Ads booked before 2 October and never cancelled resolve NO, and Reuters and New York Times reports of a new ad buy settle it if the filings are unclear.
We looked for cases where a party's central money group pulled its ads from a race a few weeks before polling day because of bad polls, and moved the money to other races, while the candidate had the backing of the party's leader, who does not run that group. We found four since 2008, all US Senate races. All four candidates lost, but that mostly shows the funds read the polls well. So we ask whether the money came back.