Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market01 Nov 2026

Will S&P name a new S&P 500 member outside its review by 31 Dec?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
Hunch91%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count from the nine reviews: the cases were chosen by early additions and do not record the weeks after 2 November. The question comes from S&P's habit of filling a place as soon as a member is bought or split.

Hunch. In ten of the last eleven years S&P named at least one new S&P 500 member outside its review between early November and the end of December.

How this resolves

The outside-the-review market resolves YES if from 2 November to 31 December 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices announces a new S&P 500 member in place of a company that is bought, split off or removed, and Reuters or the FT confirm it. Changes made as part of the December quarterly rebalance and Okta do not count, but if one release contains both, a replacement for a company that is bought or split off counts here.

The pattern behind it

6 of 9
Six of nine times since 2019, after at least two companies joined the S&P 500 early in a quarter, S&P's next review added two or three more. Three times it added none.

We looked for cases where S&P ran its regular quarterly review of the S&P 500 after at least two companies had already joined early in the same quarter. We started in September 2019, the first review S&P announced two weeks ahead. We found nine such reviews from 2019 to 2026, and counted how many companies each review added.