Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Jun 2026

Does Starship Flight 13 lift off by 10 August 2026?

BinaryResolves 10 Aug 2026
Hunch68%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Starship Flight 13 was aborted at ignition on 16 July 2026 due to an engine issue and had not lifted off by 10 August (Spaceflight Now, 16 Jul 2026).

Resolved 10 Aug 2026
How this resolves

Flight 13 resolves YES on a liftoff (not necessarily mission success) confirmed by SpaceX's official webcast and Spaceflight Now by 23:59 UTC on 10 August 2026.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
Of the five largest IPOs before SpaceX, four traded above their listing price one month after debut. Facebook is the exception, and the warning: the misses come when a core doubt about the business surfaces immediately. For SpaceX, that doubt has a launch date.

We looked at the five largest listings before SpaceX and asked where each stock stood a month after its first day of trading. Most were above their listing price. Facebook, in 2012, was the famous exception.