Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market30 Sep 2026

Does Junts win a deal to change the rent decree before the vote?

BinaryResolves 2 Nov 2026
History29%
Hunch12%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Congress voted on the rent decree on 2 October 2026 with no deal announced, and Junts voted against it, so the decree was revoked, according to the BOE resolution, Al Jazeera and Infobae; the La Moncloa and Junts pages were not read directly.

Resolved 2 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 7: both in Italy, a deal and promised amendments. In the three that fell, the party that said no got nothing first.

Hunch. Decrees cannot be amended at the vote, and on 30 September neither governing party had answered Junts's demands, which were aimed mainly at the other decree (elDiario.es, 30 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The deal market resolves on statements of the government (lamoncloa.gob.es) and Junts (junts.cat): YES if, before the vote on the rent decree starts, either side announces an agreement that changes the decree or promises amendments to it. A vote with no such agreement resolves NO. It is void if the decree was not published in the BOE by 2 October 2026. elDiario.es and Infobae are the backups.

The pattern behind it

4 of 7
In 4 of 7 cases parliament approved the decree, twice after a deal with the party that said no. The three that fell were all in Spain.

We looked for cases where a government without its own majority issued a decree that lapses unless parliament approves it in time, and the party whose votes it needed said no in public before the vote. We kept only governments that had already lost such votes, as this one has lost eleven since 2023. We count decrees settled by one vote, or by one party decision, as one case. We found seven since 1997, five in Spain and two in Italy.