History. 2 of the 3 decrees that fell came back in a new decree: the pensions package in January 2025 and the eviction ban twice in 2026. For the 2025 power grid decree we could not tell.
Hunch. After Congress revoked the last rent extension decree on 28 April, the next one we found came on 29 September, five months later, a longer gap than this market allows (BOE, 28 Apr 2026; The Guardian, 29 Sep 2026).
The new decree market resolves on boe.es, checked on 30 December 2026: YES if a new royal decree-law with automatic extension of rental contracts, dated no later than 29 December 2026, is in the BOE. It applies only if Congress revoked the 29 September rent decree or its limit passed. If the decree is approved, or the condition has not happened by 2 November 2026, the market is void. Backups are the Council of Ministers summaries on lamoncloa.gob.es and elDiario.es.
We looked for cases where a government without its own majority issued a decree that lapses unless parliament approves it in time, and the party whose votes it needed said no in public before the vote. We kept only governments that had already lost such votes, as this one has lost eleven since 2023. We count decrees settled by one vote, or by one party decision, as one case. We found seven since 1997, five in Spain and two in Italy.