History. 4 of 7: after an order to keep part of a product off the market, the world price was higher about two months later in four of seven orders (rubber 2016, 2017 and 2019, cocoa 2011) and lower in three (rubber 2008 and 2012, EU sugar 2006).
Hunch. In the four weeks before the order the farm price of extra virgin olive oil fell every week, to €316.51 per 100 kg in the week to 1 November, and mills may count oil already in their tanks toward the 12%.
The Christmas price market resolves on the Spanish farm ministry's weekly table of national average prices: YES if extra virgin olive oil for the week of 21 to 27 December 2026 is above €316.51 per 100 kilos, the price in the week to 1 November. The row is expected by 8 January 2027, if it comes later the market resolves on the day it appears and if it is not out by 22 January it is void, and El País and the ministry's news pages are the backups.
We looked for cases where a government, or a group of producing countries, ordered producers to keep part of a product already made off the market for a set time. We found seven such orders from 2006 to 2019. Five were rubber export cuts by Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. (World Bank; The Jakarta Post; Al Jazeera; EUR-Lex)