History. 4 of 7: three months after the month of the order the world price was above the month before the order in four of seven (rubber 2016 +32.5%, 2017 +12.1%, 2019 +17.0%, cocoa 2011 +2.3%) and below in three (rubber 2008 -13.3%, 2012 -3.6%, EU sugar 2006 -15.0%).
Hunch. The farm price of extra virgin olive oil fell every week for four weeks before the order, to €316.51 per 100 kg in the week to 1 November, and from 31 December Spain can only make the 12% smaller.
The late February market resolves on the same ministry table for 2027: YES if extra virgin olive oil for the week of 22 to 28 February 2027 is above €316.51 per 100 kilos. The row is expected by 5 March 2027, if it comes later the market resolves on the day it appears and if it is not out by 19 March it is void, and El País and the ministry's news pages are the backups.
We looked for cases where a government, or a group of producing countries, ordered producers to keep part of a product already made off the market for a set time. We found seven such orders from 2006 to 2019. Five were rubber export cuts by Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. (World Bank; The Jakarta Post; Al Jazeera; EUR-Lex)